As of November 30, 2025, Trump’s $5M “gold card”/“Trump Card” visa has only been proposed and partially rolled out for expressions of interest; its ultimate lifetime take‑up is unknown.

Key facts:

• President Trump announced the $5M “gold card” (later branded the Trump Card) in late February 2025 as a replacement for the EB‑5 investor visa, pitching it as a premium path to U.S. residency and citizenship for the ultra‑wealthy.(reuters.com)
• A government-backed website (trumpcard.gov) went live in June 2025; officials and press reports say around 70,000 people have registered interest via this site, but this is a mailing list, not approved visas.(popularmigrant.com)
• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has claimed that roughly 1,000 cards were sold in a single day and that more than 1,000 cards have already been sold, but these numbers come from political statements rather than audited statistics, and no detailed issuance data has been published.(nypost.com)
• Immigration lawyers and policy experts warn that the program, as designed, likely lacks a clear legal basis without new legislation; they advise clients that the Gold Card is not yet a reliable, legally available path to residency, and note that the current website is only a registration-of-interest form.(thedailybeast.com)
• Independent advisers and industry experts are skeptical about scale: some estimate demand on the order of ~2,000 cards per year, while others predict fewer than 1,000 cards will ever be sold, far below the 2,000,000 figure Chamath floated. These, however, are projections, not final outcomes.(cnbc.com)

Chamath’s prediction was that, if the product effectively allowed gray or semi‑sanctioned money to be regularized (via de‑facto KYC/AML/OFAC workarounds), global demand could reach on the order of 2,000,000 buyers over the life of the program. So far:

• There is no clear evidence that the final or de facto rules provide such a clean workaround to sanctions/AML controls; details are still murky and under legal scrutiny.(euronews.com)
• The program is less than a year old, with uncertain legal status and contested implementation. Even if expert skepticism proves correct, we have not yet observed the full "life of the program," nor a definitive legal shutdown that would make 2,000,000 buyers impossible.

Because the program is new, legally unsettled, and its long‑run duration and rules are unknown, it is too early to know whether cumulative global demand will ever approach ~2,000,000 buyers. The available evidence (modest early interest, legal doubts, and expert skepticism) suggests the prediction is optimistic, but it does not conclusively falsify a multi‑decade "over the life of the program" forecast. Hence the outcome is inconclusive rather than clearly right or wrong at this time.