Chamath’s on‑air comment was that over the next six months the U.S. would have to refinance roughly $10T of debt and that, in that window, the 10‑year Treasury yield “maybe [could] even get under 4% if we get a good string of data.”(lilys.ai)

Evaluating this as a time‑and‑level call (“10‑year < 4% within six months of early March 2025”):

• The relevant window is roughly 1 March 2025 to 1 September 2025.
• Multiple market reports show that the 10‑year Treasury yield fell below 4% in early April 2025, well within that six‑month period:
  • On 4 April 2025, the 10‑year yield slipped below 4%, with one report citing a move to about 3.98%, noting it was the first break of the 4% level in roughly half a year.(theglobaltreasurer.com)
  • On 5 April 2025, coverage described the 10‑year yield dropping further, to around 3.89%, clearly under the 4% threshold.(ainvest.com)
  • A separate summary table of yields likewise records the 10‑year at roughly 3.94% on April 4, 2025, reinforcing that sub‑4% prints occurred on those dates.(msmtimes.com)
• Monthly constant‑maturity data based on Federal Reserve series show the April 2025 monthly average for the 10‑year closer to 4.28%, indicating the drop below 4% was brief rather than a new regime, but it did happen during the specified timeframe.(value-trades.com)
• Independent analyses of the 2025 “maturity wall” in U.S. marketable Treasury debt describe multi‑trillion‑dollar refinancing needs in 2025, on the order of high single‑digit trillions for the year, so Chamath’s “about $10T in the next six months” is an aggressive but directionally consistent shorthand for the scale of rollover facing the Treasury.(reddit.com)

The reason yields dipped (flight to safety amid tariff‑driven growth fears, not a benign “good string of data”) diverges from his implied mechanism, but the core empirical claim — that the 10‑year could fall below 4% within six months of the episode — did in fact occur. Hence this prediction is best classified as right.