The forecast horizon (“by the end of 2025”) has not finished yet, and available reporting only covers developments through late November 2025.

What we do know so far:

• Early in 2025, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick repeatedly claimed that 1,000 Gold Cards had been sold in a single day, but fact‑checks and later reporting emphasized that there was no evidence any visas had actually been issued or even could be, because the legal and administrative framework was not in place.(snopes.com)
• As of early May 2025, VisaVerge reported that “not a single Gold Card has been sold or issued,” despite Lutnick’s public remarks.(visaverge.com)
• When Trump cut the price from $5M to $1M and signed the Gold Card executive order in September 2025, mainstream coverage (e.g., CNBC and CBS) still described the program as being in an “implementation phase,” with no way for applicants to actually apply yet and no cards issued.(cnbc.com)
• By mid–November 2025, immigration law firms and consultancies (Fragomen; Colombo & Hurd; NPZ Law Group; VisaVerge) report that:
  • The draft USCIS petition form (I‑140G) has only just been sent to OMB for review.
  • Agencies are racing to meet a December 18, 2025 implementation deadline.
  • The Gold Card program is still not open for applications yet; key details and the Commerce application step are pending.(fragomen.com)

This strongly implies that, as of late November 2025, zero Trump Gold Cards have actually been sold/issued, and even optimistic prediction markets expect at most a handful of sales in 2025.(visaverge.com) However, because:

• The program’s formal launch is targeted for December 18, 2025, which is after the latest detailed public reports, and
• We do not yet have data on how many, if any, Gold Cards will actually be approved and issued between that launch date and December 31, 2025,

we cannot conclusively state the final 2025 total. Jason’s >5,000‑sold prediction therefore cannot yet be judged definitively right or wrong based on the information currently available.

Hence the outcome is “inconclusive (too early)”, even though existing evidence and market expectations point toward the final number likely being far below 5,000.