In 2025 the U.S. did enact exactly the kind of new, broad tariff rounds Friedberg was talking about: Trump layered a 10% “fentanyl” tariff on all Chinese imports, added sweeping reciprocal tariffs of 10–50% on many countries, and imposed 25% duties on Canada, Mexico, and others under various executive orders. (reuters.com) China initially retaliated with steep tariffs but then agreed to a series of negotiated truces: a May 2025 Geneva deal slashed reciprocal rates from well over 100% to 10% for both sides, followed by an October accord that locked in lower tariffs for a year and bundled Chinese commitments on fentanyl control and resumed U.S. farm purchases, i.e., clear partial concessions within a negotiated settlement rather than sustained maximal retaliation. (china-briefing.com) Canada first imposed broad 25% counter-tariffs, then in August 2025 dropped most of them on USMCA‑qualifying goods to “match” U.S. exemptions, a move widely described as easing or retreating from its hard line, while sectoral tariffs on U.S. steel, aluminum, and autos remained – again, a partial concession embedded in ongoing talks rather than indefinite full retaliation. (cnbc.com) Mexico, similarly, secured exemptions for USMCA‑compliant exports from the global tariff hike and later obtained a 90‑day reprieve from additional planned U.S. tariffs to negotiate a broader arrangement, instead of implementing or sustaining maximum counter‑tariffs of its own. (reuters.com) The EU suspended planned 25% countermeasures, then agreed to a July–August 2025 framework where it will eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and grant preferential access for many U.S. farm and seafood exports, while accepting a 15% U.S. tariff on most EU goods and pausing its retaliation for at least six months – a textbook negotiated compromise with significant European concessions. (theguardian.com) Some disputes, notably with India, remain in flux, but even there officials on both sides now openly expect a tariff truce and trade deal that would adjust the punitive U.S. rates, not lock in India’s maximum retaliatory posture. (reuters.com) Taken together, the major trading partners targeted in this new tariff round have indeed moved toward partial concessions and negotiated settlements rather than maintaining maximal retaliatory tariffs indefinitely, matching Friedberg’s prediction in substance.