Available evidence shows Jason’s quantitative scenario has already failed and cannot be salvaged, even though Trump’s second term is not over.

1. Baseline of ~$1B/day and goal of >$3B/day
   DOGE’s official X account and sympathetic coverage in January 2025 said it was already “saving the Federal Government approx. $1 billion/day” and explicitly framed > $3 billion/day as a future target, not an achieved rate.(foxbusiness.com) There is no later official DOGE communication or mainstream report indicating that DOGE ever claimed to have reached a sustained $3B/day savings rate.

2. Actual and claimed totals are far below what 3B/day for years would imply
   To get roughly $60,000 in implied benefit for a family of five, Jason was implicitly extrapolating something like $3B/day over most of a 4‑year term, i.e., on the order of $4+ trillion in total savings/claims (about $13k+ per person, or ~$65k for five people).
   By contrast, DOGE’s own official Savings page listed $214B in estimated savings as of October 4, 2025, with an “amount saved per taxpayer” of $1,329.19.(doge.gov) Even if you simply scale that per‑taxpayer figure by five, you get under $7,000 for a family of five—roughly an order of magnitude below the ~$60,000 Jason projected, and that’s after most of 2025 when DOGE was active.

Independent and semi‑official analyses are even less generous. A Reuters deep dive in May 2025 found that while DOGE claimed roughly $175B in savings, the actually observable reduction in agency spending over comparable periods was only about $19B, i.e., roughly half of one percent of federal outlays—nowhere near multi‑trillion‑dollar territory.(reuters.com) The Wikipedia summary of Trump’s second‑term economic policy similarly notes that Elon Musk revised DOGE’s goal down from $2T to about $150B in savings and that, by April 2025, DOGE was claiming a bit over $160B, with much of that offset by the costs of mass layoffs and disruptions.(en.wikipedia.org) None of these trajectories point toward trillions in claimed savings.

3. DOGE has already been dissolved, foreclosing a later catch‑up to 3B/day
   DOGE was created by Trump’s executive order as a temporary organization within the Executive Office of the President, with a mandate initially running into mid‑2026.(en.wikipedia.org) But in late November 2025, multiple outlets reported that DOGE had been quietly disbanded about eight months ahead of schedule; its functions were partly absorbed by the Office of Personnel Management.(theguardian.com) Reuters and others describe it as no longer functioning as a central entity.(reuters.com) Once the department itself has been shuttered, it can no longer ramp up to or sustain a new $3B/day claimed savings rate over the remainder of Trump’s term.

4. Macro indicators contradict the idea of large net savings
   Separate analyses of federal fiscal data show that, despite DOGE’s rhetoric, overall federal spending and debt continued to rise, with spending in early 2025 running notably higher than under the prior administration.(marketwatch.com) While Jason only talked about claimed savings, the fact that neither DOGE’s official tallies nor macro‑level fiscal aggregates ever approach the multi‑trillion‑dollar scale implied by his back‑of‑the‑envelope math reinforces that his scenario did not materialize.

Putting it together: DOGE peaked at a (contested) claim of about $1B/day and a few hundred billion in total claimed savings before being shut down; it never reached or sustained $3B/day, and the cumulative implied benefit per family of five is an order of magnitude below the ~$60k Jason projected. With DOGE now dissolved, there is no realistic path for the original prediction to become true. Therefore this prediction is wrong.