Available reporting shows:

• On January 20–21, 2025, President Trump issued blanket clemency for roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants and commuted the sentences of 14 named leaders of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers (including Enrique Tarrio, Ethan Nordean, Joseph Biggs, Zachary Rehl, Dominic Pezzola, Stewart Rhodes, Kelly Meggs, Jessica Watkins, Roberto Minuta, etc.).(whitehouse.gov)
• Since their release, prominent Proud Boys and Oath Keepers figures have been very active publicly (press conferences, CPAC, lawsuits against DOJ, appearances at court hearings), but there is no credible reporting of any of them carrying out a major new violent plot or attack comparable to or worse than their original January 6 conduct.
  • Enrique Tarrio was briefly arrested near the Capitol for a simple assault allegation (striking a protester’s phone and arm) after CPAC; prosecutors later declined to pursue the case. This is far less severe than his prior role organizing seditious conspiracy around January 6.(apnews.com)
  • Stewart Rhodes returned to Capitol Hill and has engaged in political advocacy after his commutation, but reporting describes speech and lobbying activity, not new acts of violence.(apnews.com)
• By contrast, other pardoned January 6 rioters (not identified as Proud Boys or Oath Keepers members) have committed serious new crimes after clemency, including:
  • Edward Kelley, pardoned for his Jan. 6 offenses, later convicted and sentenced to life in prison for plotting to bomb an FBI office and assassinate dozens of law‑enforcement officers.(en.wikipedia.org)
  • Christopher Moynihan, a pardoned rioter, arrested in October 2025 for terroristic threats after allegedly plotting to assassinate House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries.(apnews.com)
  • A broader pattern of reoffending among pardoned Jan. 6 participants (gun charges, deadly DUI, child‑sex crimes, etc.) is documented in overviews of the pardon cohort.(en.wikipedia.org)

However, the specific, normalized prediction you gave is narrower: that members of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers who were involved in January 6 and later pardoned or released would, in the coming years, commit future acts of violence worse than their January 6 conduct.

As of November 30, 2025:

• There is some post‑clemency misconduct by a key Proud Boys leader (Tarrio’s minor alleged assault), but nothing documented that is more serious than his or other leaders’ original roles in organizing or executing the Capitol attack.
• There are no reported new violent plots or attacks by the pardoned/commuted Oath Keepers or Proud Boys leaders comparable to seditious conspiracy and the organized violence of January 6 itself.
• Only about 10 months have passed since their release, and the prediction explicitly speaks of events occurring over “the coming years,” so the relevant time window has likely not fully played out.

Because (a) the condition that Proud Boys/Oath Keepers members commit worse violence has not yet been met, and (b) there is still substantial time left in the forecast horizon, the evidence is not sufficient either to confirm or to falsify the prediction at this point.

So the fairest classification is: inconclusive (too early).