As of November 30, 2025, it is too early to determine whether Chamath’s full prediction has come true.

1. Status of U.S. stablecoin payment rails

• The U.S. did pass the GENIUS Act in July 2025, the first federal law creating a comprehensive regulatory framework for dollar‑backed payment stablecoins. (en.wikipedia.org)
• However, the law’s core regime does not take effect until the earlier of January 18, 2027 or 120 days after regulators issue final rules; agencies have up to one year from enactment (mid‑2026) to write those rules. Until then, the act mainly provides legal groundwork rather than a fully operational national payment rail. (natlawreview.com)
• Commentators describe the GENIUS Act as laying the foundation for a future blockchain‑based payment system that could make transactions faster and cheaper, but not as a completed, ubiquitous rail in 2025. (napa-net.org)
• Major networks (Mastercard–Fiserv, Western Union, Zelle) have announced stablecoin-based offerings, mostly focused on cross‑border payments, with launches planned for 2026 or with no firm live date yet, indicating the infrastructure is still in rollout/planning rather than “successfully implemented” nationwide. (barrons.com)

2. Effects on GDP growth and payment fraud

• Economic and policy analysis so far emphasizes potential benefits: stablecoins could boost demand for U.S. Treasuries and may put downward pressure on interest rates, but current retail use is limited and broader macroeconomic effects are explicitly described as speculative or long‑term. (reuters.com)
• There is no credible 2025 evidence attributing a significant acceleration of U.S. GDP growth specifically to stablecoin payment rails; any such impact, if it occurs, would likely take several years to show up in macro data.
• On fraud, U.S. authorities are still reporting large and rising crypto‑related scam losses, with stablecoins (especially USDT) heavily used in pig‑butchering and other fraud schemes, prompting new enforcement task forces. This does not yet support a clear claim that payment‑related fraud has been reduced by stablecoin rails overall. (theverge.com)

3. David Sacks’ role

• David Sacks was appointed White House AI and Crypto Czar in Trump’s second term and chairs the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets. (en.wikipedia.org)
• From early 2025 onward he publicly made stablecoin legislation his top priority, led press events alongside key banking and finance committee leaders, and is widely described as leading the administration’s stablecoin push. (cnbc.com) This part of the prediction—that Sacks would be a key figure in figuring out the system—appears to be on track.

Overall assessment

• The precondition of the prediction—a successfully implemented, widely used U.S. stablecoin payment rail making payments instantaneous and nearly costless—has not yet been fully met; the system is in an early legal and rollout phase.
• Because of that, and because measurable impacts on GDP growth and fraud would reasonably take years to evaluate, there is currently insufficient evidence to say whether the full causal claims (“enormous acceleration to GDP,” “cut fraud”) are right or wrong.

Given the short time since the law’s passage and the long‑run nature of the predicted effects, the forecast is inconclusive (too early to judge), even though the sub‑claim about Sacks being a key architect looks directionally correct.