After the January 2025 Southern California wildfires, multiple recall efforts were in fact launched against both Gavin Newsom and Karen Bass, satisfying the prediction’s “if they start recall campaigns in the near term” condition.

Karen Bass:

• A change.org petition titled “Recall karen bass mayor los angeles” was created on January 9, 2025 and quickly accumulated hundreds of signatures, with media reporting over 86,000 signatures on an “immediate recall” petition in the days after the fires. (change.org)
• A formal recall committee and related sites (e.g., recallbass.com, recallbassnow.com, karenbassrecall.com, FireMayorBass.com) organized a structured campaign to remove Bass, including fundraising and petition drives. (recallbassnow.com)
• The Los Angeles Times reported that the pro-recall group had served Bass with a notice of intent and, once petitions were approved, would have until August 4, 2025 to collect roughly 328,000 valid signatures—an effort experts deemed “highly unlikely” to succeed. (latimes.com)
• By August 2025, coverage noted that the Recall Karen Bass group had ended its campaign in June, explicitly stating that a recall was “no longer our vehicle for change” and that they were shifting focus to defeating Bass in the regularly scheduled 2026 mayoral election. (denvergazette.com)
• Bass therefore remained in office and is listed as the incumbent mayor heading into the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. (en.wikipedia.org)

Gavin Newsom:

• In early 2025, the group “Saving California” launched a new recall effort against Governor Newsom, initially spurred in part by anger over the wildfire response. The California Secretary of State approved their recall petition on March 28, 2025, allowing them to collect signatures statewide. (governmentwire.com)
• The official state "Current Recall Efforts" page shows this recall (proponent Randy Economy, filed March 28, 2025) as “Failed 10/01/2025”, indicating that organizers did not submit enough valid signatures by the deadline to qualify a recall election. (sos.ca.gov)
• Newsom remained in office and continued to play a leading role in state politics in late 2025, including championing and then celebrating passage of Proposition 50, confirming that he was not removed via recall. (politico.com)

Because (1) recall campaigns did start against both officials in the “near term” after the podcast, and (2) neither recall effort succeeded in removing Newsom or Bass from office, Jason’s guarantee that such voter-led recalls “will succeed” is contradicted by the actual outcomes. The prediction therefore must be judged wrong.