As of November 30, 2025, it is far too early to know whether “a substantial share” of Malibu oceanfront homeowners will never be able to fully rebuild their homes in their lifetimes.

Key points:

1. Time horizon vs. elapsed time

   • The fires in question (notably the Palisades Fire) occurred in January 2025, destroying thousands of structures across Pacific Palisades and Malibu, including more than 300 beachfront homes along Pacific Coast Highway in Malibu.(en.wikipedia.org)
   • Fewer than 11 months have passed since the disaster; owners who are “50, 60, 70 years old” plausibly have decades left. There simply isn’t enough elapsed time to determine that they “will never” rebuild.

2. California Coastal Commission’s authority has been suspended, not weaponized

   • On January 12, 2025, Governor Newsom issued an executive order (EO N‑4‑25) suspending California Coastal Act permitting requirements for reconstruction of properties substantially damaged or destroyed in the LA firestorms, specifically to allow faster rebuilding.(gov.ca.gov)
   • After the Coastal Commission issued guidance implying some Coastal Act conditions still applied, Newsom responded on January 27, 2025 (EO N‑14‑25), calling that guidance “legally erroneous,” reiterating that Coastal Act requirements are suspended, and directing the Commission not to take any action that conflicts with his orders.(gov.ca.gov)
   • A June 2025 legal analysis notes that, as of then, Coastal Commission approval is not required for most fire‑rebuilds (so long as they are essentially the same structures) and that local agencies now determine whether projects qualify for this suspension, with those decisions not appealable to the Commission.(allenmatkins.com)
   • A Surfrider Foundation brief similarly concludes that, under these executive orders, the Coastal Commission “will not stand in the way” of owners who choose to rebuild; the main remaining permits are local (city/county) ones.(la.surfrider.org)
   • Taken together, current law and policy run counter to the prediction’s specific mechanism (the Commission slow‑rolling or blocking rebuilds).

3. Rebuilding is constrained, but for other reasons and still at an early stage

   • Reporting from March 2025 describes more than 300 families with destroyed beachfront homes along PCH in Malibu facing extra hurdles due to sea‑level rise, seawall and septic upgrades, and the high cost of rebuilding, but emphasizes that political leaders are not currently pushing to prevent rebuilding; if anything, there is strong pressure to allow it.(latimes.com)
   • In the City of Los Angeles’ Palisades area, the mayor’s office reported by July 23, 2025 that over 85% of destroyed residential properties had been cleared of debris (a prerequisite for rebuilding) and that nearly 300 rebuilding‑related project plans had already been approved—portrayed as an unusually fast recovery pace, even if many homes are not yet reconstructed.(mayor.lacity.gov)
   • Early‑stage bottlenecks (insurance, debris removal, local building/septic standards, financing) are obvious, but there is no evidence yet of widespread final denials or permanent non‑rebuild outcomes attributable to the Coastal Commission.

Because:

• The prediction’s time component (“will never be able to rebuild in their lifetimes”) cannot be assessed less than a year after the fire, and
• The prediction’s causal mechanism (systematic blocking/slow‑rolling by the California Coastal Commission) is presently undermined by executive orders that suspend its permitting role rather than empower it,

there is not enough information yet to say the prediction is either correct or definitively wrong. The appropriate classification is “inconclusive” (too early).