Evidence on this multi‑part prediction is mixed:

• Legacy primes’ stock performance in 2025:

  • Boeing (BA): After a steep 32% drop in 2024 and an additional 9% slide early in 2025, Boeing’s shares recovered somewhat; as of late November, they are only up “mid‑single digits” year‑to‑date and remain volatile, with ongoing regulatory and production issues. This lags the S&P 500’s ~16% gain in 2025. (barrons.com)
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT): By early July, LMT was down about 4% YTD and by mid‑October it had a one‑year return of around –19%, materially underperforming the S&P 500. Lockheed also cut its 2025 profit outlook due to F‑35 technology‑upgrade delays and losses on fixed‑price classified programs, clear business headwinds. (benzinga.com)
  • RTX (Raytheon): In contrast, RTX has had an excellent 2025. StatMuse and Macrotrends data show its 2025 return in the ~37–50%+ range, far ahead of the market. The company reports a record ~$218 billion backlog and “unprecedented” missile demand, with 4–6% expected sales growth in 2025. (statmuse.com)
    Net: Two of the three cited primes (BA, LMT) did face notable headwinds and at best modest or negative stock performance, but RTX is a major counterexample, enjoying strong fundamentals and outsized returns rather than being “deeply challenged.”

• Performance of newer tech‑driven defense firms:

  • Palantir (PLTR): Multiple sources show PLTR as one of the best‑performing U.S. defense‑adjacent stocks in 2025. A Benzinga comparison table has Palantir up ~79% YTD by early July, versus Boeing ~26%, RTX ~26%, and Lockheed –4%. (benzinga.com) Later analysis notes Palantir up ~75% YTD by early July and roughly 300% YTD by late October, vastly outpacing both the legacy primes and the S&P 500. (nasdaq.com) Over the past year through November, PLTR is up about 150%. (investing.com)
  • Anduril: Anduril raised about $2.5 billion in 2025 at roughly a $30–30.5 billion valuation and is reported to have more than $2 billion in active government contracts. It won high‑profile programs such as Australia’s A$1.7 billion Ghost Shark XL‑AUV fleet, is a contractor on the U.S. Space Force’s Golden Dome missile‑defense effort, and its Fury (YFQ‑44) drone is one of the winning designs in the USAF’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft program. (businessinsider.com) These wins and its funding trajectory support the idea that tech‑centric “new primes” are gaining momentum.

• Shift in defense spending and contracting patterns:

  • Policy and funding signals clearly favor AI‑ and software‑heavy solutions. Commentators note firms like Palantir and Anduril winning multi‑hundred‑million‑dollar data, AI, and autonomy contracts and becoming central to a “new breed” of defense tech suppliers. (aoav.org.uk) Venture funding into defense tech startups roughly doubled in 2025 to over $19 billion, driven by Pentagon modernization priorities around AI, autonomy, and software‑defined systems. (businessinsider.com)
  • However, at Baird’s 2025 Defense & Gov’t conference, Anduril’s own leadership emphasized that the Department of Defense still isn’t procuring at scale from new entrants—most of their work is in prototypes and early fielding, not yet in large production programs with the same volume and stability that legacy primes enjoy. (wash100.com) This suggests the “swing” of spending away from incumbents toward startups is underway but far from complete.

Putting it together:

• The relative stock‑performance call—that newer tech‑driven defense companies like Palantir would dramatically outperform legacy primes—did happen in 2025. Palantir’s returns tower over Boeing, Lockheed, and even the strongly performing RTX. (benzinga.com)
• The claim that legacy primes would be “deeply challenged…across the board” is only partially supported. Boeing and Lockheed faced real operational and earnings headwinds plus subpar share performance, but RTX experienced record demand, strong financial results, and very strong stock gains—directly contradicting a blanket “headwinds” thesis. (marketwatch.com)
• The idea of a wholesale, near‑term shift of government defense spending away from primes toward ROI‑driven startups is also overstated. While policy, venture funding, and some major contracts favor AI/autonomy players, official statements from both the Pentagon and new‑entrant executives indicate that large‑scale production dollars still overwhelmingly flow to the traditional primes, with new firms mostly in prototype and early deployment stages. (defensenews.com)

Because the prediction bundles together (1) a relative stock‑market bet that largely worked, (2) an industry‑wide “deep challenge” claim that is contradicted by RTX’s strong 2025, and (3) a structural spending‑shift claim that is only partially and gradually playing out, the overall truth value depends heavily on which component you weight most. The data are sufficient, but they support some parts and clearly contradict others, so the outcome for the prediction as stated is best characterized as ambiguous rather than cleanly right or wrong.