As of November 30, 2025, no widely‑recognized major U.S. "mainline" bank (e.g., JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, etc., as listed among the largest U.S. banks by assets) has experienced an outright banking crisis involving failure, FDIC resolution, or an acute, public liquidity/solvency event driven by reserve or balance‑sheet stress in 2025.(en.wikipedia.org)

Public indicators instead show:

• Only two very small banks (Pulaski Savings Bank and The Santa Anna National Bank, each with <$100M in assets) have failed in 2025, per the FDIC list of bank failures; no large or systemically important bank appears on that list.(en.wikipedia.org)
• The Federal Reserve’s 2025 stress tests report that all 22 of the largest U.S. banks remained above regulatory capital minimums even under severe recession scenarios, implying no immediate capital or solvency crisis at the big "mainline" institutions.(ft.com)
• Disclosures from individual majors (e.g., Citigroup’s Q1 2025 call) describe strong capital and liquidity positions, with CET1 ratios comfortably above requirements and substantial available liquidity resources.(alphaspread.com)
• System‑level commentary and forecasts (e.g., Swift Centre’s probabilistic assessment) treat a major‑bank liquidity crisis as a low‑probability future risk, not as an event that has already occurred.(swiftcentre.org)

However, Chamath’s prediction window runs “by the end of 2025.” Since there is still one month remaining and no such major‑bank crisis has occurred yet, the prediction has not been confirmed, but it also cannot yet be definitively ruled out. Therefore, the fairest status as of today is inconclusive (too early to tell) rather than clearly right or wrong.