By November 30, 2025, there has not been a wave of auto mega‑mergers among large legacy OEMs.

• The one clear example pointing in that direction was the proposed Honda–Nissan (with possible Mitsubishi participation) mega‑merger. On December 23, 2024, they announced an in‑principle agreement to pursue a merger under a holding company by 2026, explicitly framed as a response to electrification pressures and competition from Tesla and Chinese EV makers like BYD. Analysts and trade press repeatedly described this as a mega‑merger aimed at surviving EV disruption and achieving scale. (trendforce.com)
• However, those talks collapsed quickly. By February 2025, Honda, Nissan, and Mitsubishi formally ended negotiations and terminated their integration framework; Nissan’s board rejected the proposed terms, and the companies reverted to looser strategic cooperation instead of merging. Nissan’s own summary of events notes that the planned 2026 merger was abandoned in February 2025. (upi.com)
• Crucially, no further comparable mergers among major traditional automakers (GM, Ford, Toyota, VW Group, Stellantis, Hyundai–Kia, etc.) were announced or completed in 2025. Contemporary analysis around the Honda–Nissan plan even argued that such deals are rare and were unlikely to trigger a broader merger mania, which is exactly what played out. (forbes.com) Instead, we saw partnerships and JVs (e.g., GM–Hyundai co‑development, VW–Rivian technology JV) rather than corporate mergers. (reuters.com)
• Some consolidation occurred inside Chinese groups (e.g., Geely fully taking Zeekr private), but these are intra‑group restructurings in China, not the cross‑company mega‑mergers of Western/Japanese legacy OEMs that Chamath was describing. (ft.com)

Since 2025 produced at most one short‑lived mega‑merger attempt and no sustained, multi‑firm wave of auto mega‑mergers or clear “collapse of the traditional auto OEMs,” the prediction that 2025 would bring such a wave is best judged as wrong.