Chamath @ 00:39:59Inconclusive
marketstech
By the end of 2025, the combined market capitalization of the top 7–8 mega‑cap U.S. tech stocks (“Magnificent Seven/Eight”) will have declined by at least US$2 trillion from their peak 2024 values, even if the percentage decline is on the order of only ~10%.
I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the Mag seven will be in the trillions of dollars... it could even be 10%, but 10% in the Mag eight will be a couple trillion bucks.
Explanation
The prediction is framed to be evaluated "by the end of 2025," and today is November 30, 2025, so the deadline has not yet passed and market caps could still change materially in December. Current evidence indicates that the Magnificent Seven’s combined market cap peaked around $18.2T in 2024 (e.g., on Dec. 11, 2024). (benzinga.com) In 2025 the group has actually exceeded that level, reaching record highs around $20.9T–$21.1T in October 2025, well above the 2024 peak rather than at least $2T below it. (linkedin.com) However, because the year has not yet ended, we cannot definitively say whether a $2T+ drawdown from the 2024 peak will or will not exist by December 31, 2025, so the prediction is currently too early to judge.