Last updated Nov 29, 2025
politics
By the end of 2025, a string of right‑leaning electoral outcomes will occur: (1) Justin Trudeau will lose the Canadian federal election to Pierre Poilievre; (2) AfD will win national power in Germany; (3) Marine Le Pen will win the French presidency if an early election is triggered from a deadlock; and (4) the UK Labour government will fall and Nigel Farage will win national leadership, collectively marking a major setback for progressive, identity‑politics‑oriented parties in the G8.
The biggest political loser of 2025 is going to be progressivism... in Canada, Justin Trudeau is going to lose massively to Pierre Poilievre... in Germany. AfD looks like they will win in France if there's a deadlock and it goes into an election. More than likely Marine Le Pen is going to win. And then in the U.K.... if all of that comes to pass in the U.K., I think you're going to see the Labour government fall. And I think you're going to see Nigel Farage win... by the end of 25? It's very much a repudiation of this class based identity politics.
Explanation

The prediction is wrong because none of the specified right‑leaning outcomes materialized by late 2025. In Canada, Justin Trudeau announced his intention to resign in early January 2025, Mark Carney became Liberal leader and prime minister in March, and the 28 April 2025 federal election returned another Liberal minority government under Carney; Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre lost both the election and his own seat, so Trudeau did not lose massively to Poilievre and Canada did not shift to a right‑wing government. (en.wikipedia.org) In Germany, the February 2025 federal election made the CDU/CSU the largest bloc, AfD finished second with about 20–21 percent of the vote, and a CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition installed Friedrich Merz as chancellor in May, while other parties reiterated a cordon sanitaire against AfD; AfD did not enter government or “win national power.” (en.wikipedia.org) In France, Emmanuel Macron remained president throughout 2025 and no early presidential election was held; instead, Marine Le Pen was convicted in March 2025 over misuse of EU funds and given a five‑year ban on holding office, making it impossible for her to become president in 2025, while late‑2025 polling focused on Jordan Bardella as the far‑right favourite for the regular 2027 race. (en.wikipedia.org) In the United Kingdom, Labour won the July 2024 general election and Keir Starmer has served continuously as prime minister since 5 July 2024; as of November 2025 the Starmer ministry is still in office, and Nigel Farage remains leader of Reform UK in opposition, publicly pressing Starmer rather than replacing him, so the Labour government has not fallen and Farage has not taken national leadership. (en.wikipedia.org) Since all four concrete electoral predictions failed and progressive or centrist parties still govern in Canada, France and the UK, the broader claim that 2025 would bring a string of right‑leaning electoral victories and a major repudiation of progressive, identity‑politics‑oriented parties in the G8 is contradicted by actual outcomes by late 2025. (en.wikipedia.org)