1. Volume didn’t 4–5x vs 2024

• Baseline 2024:* The joint Artemis–Dune report State of Stablecoins 2025 shows that stablecoins facilitated about $35 trillion in total transfers over 2024.(holder.io) Separate summaries of the same report repeat this ~$35T 2024 figure.(cryptonews.net) PANews notes that USD‑denominated stablecoins are ~99% of the market, so this is essentially all USD stablecoin volume.(panewslab.com)

Data for 2025 so far: Multiple 2025 analyses based on Artemis / Dune and a16z data report that:

• Adjusted stablecoin payment volume in 2025 is about $9T, up ~87% year‑on‑year.(kucoin.com) That implies 2024 adjusted volume around $4.8T — roughly a 1.9x increase, not 4–5x.
• SQ Magazine, summarizing 2025 data, says “adjusted annual stablecoin transaction volume reached approximately $9 trillion in 2025, up about 87% year‑on‑year,” and that gross transaction flows over the last 12 months are about $46T.(sqmagazine.co.uk) Relative to the ~$35T 2024 gross figure, that’s roughly a 1.3x increase.

The prediction was for 4–5x growth in aggregate transaction volume vs 2024. By late November 2025, the best on‑chain and adjusted metrics show somewhere between ~1.3x (gross) and ~1.9x (adjusted) growth, orders of magnitude below 4–5x. Even if December 2025 were unusually high, it cannot plausibly close the gap to 4–5x relative to 2024.

2. USD stablecoins did not materially erode Visa/Mastercard’s card‑payments duopoly by 2025

Card network performance in 2025:

• Visa’s FY2025 results show net revenue up 11%, EPS up 14%, and total payments volume of about $14T, up 8% YoY, with processed transactions up 10%.(finance.yahoo.com) These are strong, not eroded, economics.
• Mastercard’s 2025 results to date show similarly robust growth: Q3 2025 net revenue up 17% YoY, net income up 20%, gross dollar volume up 9%, and switched transactions up 10%.(finance.yahoo.com) Again, this indicates expanding volumes and healthy margins.

How industry analysts and the networks themselves describe the impact:

• A mid‑2025 Jefferies analysis concludes that stablecoins do not pose a material threat to Visa or Mastercard, framing the risk as more perceived than real.(investing.com)
• A separate report on Visa and Mastercard’s earnings notes that the networks "report stablecoins have minimal market impact" so far, with usage still “minimal” relative to their overall payment volumes.(coinlive.me)
• Reuters’ Breakingviews column in July 2025 acknowledges rising concern about future competition from stablecoins but emphasizes that Visa and Mastercard still process roughly 70% of U.S. purchases, with resilient earnings; any fee pressure is characterized as a potential long‑term vulnerability, not present‑day erosion.(reuters.com)

Meanwhile, mainstream coverage of stablecoins stresses that, despite explosive on‑chain volumes and surpassing card networks in raw transfer value, much of that flow is trading, arbitrage, or other crypto‑internal activity rather than consumer/merchant card‑like payments. The a16z and Artemis/Dune reports themselves distinguish between “gross transaction flows” and a much smaller subset that qualifies as actual payments, which they put on the order of single‑digit trillions annually, comparable to systems like ACH or PayPal, not yet displacing card rails.(kucoin.com)

So by late 2025:

• Visa and Mastercard’s market share of card spending remains dominant, with U.S. card spending in 2024 exceeding $10.7T and still growing.(rss.globenewswire.com)
• Their revenues and profits are up, not down, and independent equity research explicitly says stablecoins are not yet a material threat.(investing.com)

That is very different from “materially eroding the market share and economics” of the Visa/Mastercard card‑payments duopoly by the end of 2025.

3. Summary

By the end of 2025 (with 11 months of data in hand):

• USD stablecoin transaction volumes have grown strongly but are up on the order of 30–90% vs 2024, not the 300–400% (4–5x) Chamath predicted.
• Visa and Mastercard’s card‑payment volumes, revenues, and profits have continued to grow, and mainstream financial analysis characterizes stablecoin impact as minimal so far, not materially erosive.

Taken together, both core components of the prediction are not borne out by the data available as of November 30, 2025, so the prediction is wrong.