It’s too early to evaluate this prediction based on the timeframe given.

Jason’s claim is that U.S. ridesharing’s share of total rides (the overall ride/transportation TAM) will rise from roughly ~1.5% to about 20% in a “very short period of time” / “within a few years” from early 2025. As of today (Nov 30, 2025), fewer than one year has elapsed since the prediction was made (Jan 4, 2025). Even if we interpret “very short period of time” aggressively as 2–3 years, that window clearly extends well beyond 2025, so we don’t yet know whether the prediction will be correct.

Public data also doesn’t yet show anything close to 20% of all U.S. trips being rideshare. Most available sources only estimate rideshare as a low‑single‑digit share of overall passenger miles or trips in the U.S. in the early‑to‑mid‑2020s, and none indicate a sudden jump to anything near 20% of all rides by 2025. But because the prediction’s horizon is “within a few years” after 2025, the relevant deadline has not arrived, so we can’t label it right or wrong yet.

Given that:

• The prediction explicitly depends on a multi‑year future period starting in 2025, and
• We are still inside that period as of Nov 30, 2025,

…the only fair status is “inconclusive (too early)” rather than right or wrong.