Jason @ 00:45:46Wrong
aimarkets
OpenAI’s private‑market valuation of approximately $157 billion reached in 2024 will prove to be its peak; by the end of 2025, OpenAI’s enterprise value will be materially lower than that level.
I think the one that is the most overpriced of of all of this, and I think is going to see their peak valuation is open AI... I think OpenAI's valuation made no sense... I think that that whole thing could blow up.
Explanation
Jason argued that OpenAI’s roughly $157 billion private‑market valuation achieved in 2024 would mark the company’s peak and that its enterprise value would be materially lower than that level by the end of 2025. That peak claim has already been falsified.
- In late 2024, OpenAI completed a funding and tender offer led by SoftBank that valued the company at about $157 billion; this is the reference valuation Jason was talking about. (cnbc.com)
- In 2025, OpenAI went on to close a much larger SoftBank‑led round/tender offer that valued the company at roughly $300 billion. (washingtonpost.com)
- Later in 2025, OpenAI conducted secondary share sales for employees at a valuation of about $500 billion, expanding the sale size to over $10 billion while keeping that $500 billion pricing. (cnbc.com)
Because OpenAI’s private‑market valuation subsequently rose first to around $300 billion and then to about $500 billion, the ~$157 billion 2024 valuation clearly did not prove to be the peak. That is enough to render the prediction wrong, regardless of where OpenAI’s value ends up on December 31, 2025.