Available 2025 data show that venture capital DPI did not experience the broad-based surge Jason predicted, even though M&A and IPO activity did rebound.

1. DPI / Distributions did not “shower down.”

   • An April 2025 PitchBook-based analysis described the industry as facing a “DPI crisis,” emphasizing that exits remained elusive and that secondaries were far too small to fix the shortfall in cash distributions to LPs.【6view0】
   • A September 2025 deep-dive on the 2025 liquidity crunch reports that, despite record committed capital, distributions (DPI) are “lagging well below expectations” and traditional IPO/M&A exits are still “nearly frozen” for most portfolios.【8view0】
   • Equitybee’s DPI commentary notes that for eight consecutive quarters, distribution rates have averaged single‑digit percentages of NAV, far below the decade average of 16.8%, highlighting a continuing distribution drought rather than a surge.【7search7】
   • A Q3 2025 venture market summary citing Carta data states that median DPI for 2019–2024 VC vintages sits at 0.00x, underscoring how little capital has actually been returned across recent funds.【7search9】
     Collectively, these point to modest, uneven improvement at best—not the “exits in DPI shower down” environment Jason envisioned.

2. M&A and IPO activity did rebound meaningfully.

   • Global M&A in 2025 is up sharply: Reuters and others report roughly a 10%+ rise in global deal value, with tech/media/telecom the largest sector, and other analyses put the 2025 rebound closer to a ~40% increase vs. 2024 as megadeals return.【1news12】【1news14】
   • VC-focused reports show exit value at multi‑year highs: KPMG’s Q3 2025 Venture Pulse notes that global VC exit value hit about $150B in Q3 2025, a 15‑quarter high, driven by a reopening IPO window and stronger M&A.【5search2】
   • In the U.S., Renaissance Capital data show 191 IPOs in 2025 vs. 150 in all of 2024, and AP reporting pegs 2025 IPO proceeds around $31B by October, the best year since 2021, with notable tech listings like Circle, CoreWeave, Klarna and others.【4news14】【4search3】
     So the claim that M&A and IPOs would “surge” is broadly consistent with 2025 deal and IPO statistics.

3. “Wrath of Khan ends” and antitrust pressure: partially but not clearly causal.

   • Lina Khan’s term as FTC chair ended on January 20, 2025, and she was replaced by Andrew N. Ferguson, widely described as a more deal‑friendly Republican chair.【3search17】【3search18】
   • Tech and VC commentary (e.g., TechCrunch) noted that Khan’s departure was welcomed in Silicon Valley, where her tenure was blamed for chilling M&A; Ferguson’s appointment was explicitly framed as the start of a more merger‑friendly era.【3search1】
   • However, a mid‑2025 US VC M&A outlook observes that the “anticipated regulatory shift that boosts large M&As has not yet materialized,” and that tech and healthcare deals still face substantial regulatory scrutiny.【5search3】
   • Major antitrust cases (e.g., against Meta and Microsoft’s AI activities) continued or evolved under the new leadership, suggesting that while the tone may be softer, antitrust pressure did not simply vanish.【2news14】【2search19】
     Thus, there is some alignment with Jason’s narrative (Khan out, a more permissive regime in), but the evidence for a clean cause‑and‑effect link between her exit and the 2025 deal surge is mixed.

Bottom line:
Even though tech‑heavy M&A and IPO activity did rebound in 2025 and Khan’s departure coincided with a more business‑friendly enforcement posture, multiple independent data points still describe a DPI “crisis,” liquidity drought, and near‑zero median DPI for recent VC vintages well into Q3 2025.【6view0】【8view0】【7search7】【7search9】 That contradicts the core of Jason’s prediction that VC DPI would surge and “exits in DPI shower down.” As such, the overall prediction is best classified as wrong.