Jason @ 01:11:53Inconclusive
aimarkets
By the end of 2025, OpenAI will lose its market leadership and fall to at least fourth place among AI labs by enterprise value and/or technical leadership, amounting to a functional collapse of its current dominant position.
My most contrarian belief was OpenAI loses its lead, loses its non-profit to for profit transition, and becomes the number four player in AI. The total collapse of OpenAI is my most contrarian prediction for 2020.
Explanation
As of 30 November 2025, the prediction’s deadline (“by the end of 2025”) has not yet passed, so it’s too early to give a definitive right/wrong verdict.
What we can say so far:
- Enterprise value / market position: OpenAI completed a large employee share sale in October 2025 that valued the company at about $500 billion, making it the most valuable private company in the world, ahead of other major AI labs such as Anthropic (~$183B) and xAI (~$80B). This clearly does not place OpenAI in fourth position by enterprise value among AI-focused labs; it is currently #1 by that metric. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Technical / market leadership: Multiple industry snapshots still describe OpenAI as an AI or generative-AI leader. A Statista-based summary from May 2025 reports that ChatGPT (OpenAI) together with Microsoft Copilot hold roughly three‑quarters of the global generative AI chatbot market, far ahead of rivals like Google Gemini, Claude, and others. (mtlc.co) Gartner’s 2025 Innovation Guide lists OpenAI as an “Emerging Leader in Generative AI,” with more than 1 million companies using its products. (openai.com)
- Competitive pressure (but not a collapse): Several analyses do suggest that Anthropic has overtaken OpenAI in certain enterprise segments, with estimates around 32% enterprise LLM share for Anthropic vs ~25–34% for OpenAI, and recent Claude Opus releases beating OpenAI and Google models on some coding benchmarks. (businessinsider.com) Even under those more aggressive Anthropic-favorable numbers, OpenAI looks like a close #2, not a distant #4, and certainly not in a “total collapse.”
Putting this together: as of late November 2025, OpenAI has not lost its overall market/valuation primacy among AI labs nor fallen to “at least fourth place” on any broad, objective ranking by enterprise value or general technical stature, and it is still widely described as a leading AI company. However, because the prediction explicitly runs through 31 December 2025, it might still be fulfilled or definitively falsified in the remaining time. That’s why the current status is best labeled “inconclusive (too early)” rather than clearly right or wrong.