Public information so far does not show xAI actually operating or even having fully installed ~1,000,000 GPUs yet, but the one‑year window from the Dec 20, 2024 episode has not fully elapsed as of Nov 30, 2025, so the prediction can’t be definitively graded.

Key facts:

• xAI’s Colossus started with 100,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs in 2024 and was expanded to about 200,000–230,000 GPUs (mix of H100, H200, and GB200) by mid‑2025.(eonmsk.com)
• A September 2025 survey of available data pegs the operational count at roughly 230,000–250,000 GPUs (150k H100, 50k H200, 30k GB200), with another 110k GB200 chips ‘coming online’ and a projected milestone of 1 million GPUs only by late 2026.(etcjournal.com)
• Colossus 2, a second supercluster, is described in mid‑2025 reports as bringing an initial ~550,000 GB200/GB300 GPUs online “within the coming weeks,” with a roadmap to reach about 1 million GPUs across Colossus 1 and 2 by late 2025 or early 2026—but these pieces are framed as plans and ramp‑up, not as already‑achieved 1M‑GPU deployment.(gearmusk.com)
• Overviews and news stories through late 2025 still talk about Colossus ‘aiming’ or ‘on track’ to scale to 1 million GPUs, rather than confirming that 1 million GPUs are currently installed and operational.(etcjournal.com)

Given (a) evidence that xAI has only a few hundred thousand GPUs online so far, and (b) the fact that the stated ~one‑year horizon from Dec 20, 2024 does not end until around Dec 20, 2025, the outcome of Chamath’s prediction—roughly 100k to ~1M GPUs within that year—is not yet definitively knowable from public sources. It therefore remains inconclusive (too early) rather than clearly right or wrong.