I'm saying it right now. I think we've hit peak OpenAI in the market. I think they're going to be the number 3 or 4 player. I think Gemini, meta and Xai are going to lead them. If we're sitting here in three years, I think OpenAI's number three, 4 or 5, not 1 or 2.
The prediction is defined on a three‑year horizon: Jason says that by around three years after the episode date (20 Dec 2024), i.e., by late 2027, OpenAI will no longer be a top‑two AI model provider and will instead be roughly 3rd–5th in market position, behind Google Gemini, Meta, and xAI.
As of "today" in this context (30 Nov 2025), fewer than three years have elapsed since the episode date, and we have not yet reached late 2027. Market share and competitive standings can still change substantially between now and then. Therefore, it is too early to determine whether this time‑bound prediction will ultimately be correct or incorrect.
Because the evaluation date precedes the prediction’s deadline, the correctness of the prediction cannot yet be assessed.