The prediction is about the future ("in 2 or 3 years" from a December 7, 2024 podcast, i.e., roughly 2026–2027). As of today (November 30, 2025), those years have not yet occurred, so we cannot definitively say whether a single top-tier frontier AI model will cost on the order of US$100 billion to train.

Public reporting to date on frontier model training costs (e.g., estimates for models like GPT‑4 and successor projects) generally puts total training expenditures in the range of hundreds of millions to low single-digit billions of dollars per model—not anywhere near $100 billion yet. These figures are based on industry analyses and journalistic estimates of GPU usage, cloud spending, and datacenter investments, and even very large announced AI infrastructure projects (e.g., multi‑tens‑of‑billions datacenters) are spread across multiple years and many models, not a single training run. However, these current numbers do not resolve whether by 2026–2027 costs for a single state‑of‑the‑art model will reach ~$100B.

Because the time window for the prediction has not arrived and the cost level it refers to has not yet been (dis)proven by events in those years, the correct classification is: it is too early to tell.