Sacks @ 00:21:31Inconclusive
politicsgovernmentmarkets
Within the upcoming Republican‑controlled Congress (i.e., during Trump’s new term beginning January 2025), Congress will enact FIT21 or substantially similar crypto legislation that clearly delineates when digital assets are commodities vs. securities, effectively ending the current SEC enforcement‑first approach under Gary Gensler toward crypto companies.
I think with the Republicans now winning the Senate, the prospects for that bill to get enacted are now greatly improved... So look, the bottom line here is that I think that we are close to having clear rules of the road codified by Congress, which is what the crypto industry has been asking for, and the days of Gensler terrorizing crypto companies by issuing Wells notices without clarifying what the rules are that he's prosecuting. Those days are about to be over.View on YouTube
Explanation
As of 30 November 2025, the core condition of the prediction has not yet been met, but it still could be within the current Congress/Trump term.
Key points:
- FIT21 itself was never enacted. It passed the House in May 2024 but died in the 118th Congress without becoming law. (jonesday.com)
- In the 119th Congress, House Republicans advanced a successor bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R. 3633, the “CLARITY Act”), which explicitly builds on and refines FIT21 to establish a crypto market‑structure regime and divide jurisdiction between the CFTC and SEC over digital commodities vs. securities. (congress.gov) It passed the House on July 17, 2025, but as of late November 2025 it has only been received and referred in the Senate and has not been voted on there or sent to the president, so it is not law yet. (congress.gov)
- The GENIUS Act, a major crypto bill focused on stablecoin regulation, was enacted and signed by President Trump on July 18, 2025, but it addresses payment stablecoins, not the broader commodity–security classification problem for all digital assets that FIT21/CLARITY target. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Separately, Gary Gensler is no longer SEC chair; he was replaced by Paul Atkins in April 2025, and the SEC is developing its own “token taxonomy” guidance. (en.wikipedia.org) This shift supports the spirit of Sacks’s claim that the Gensler era is ending, but it does not satisfy the specific prediction that Congress will enact a FIT21‑like market‑structure law.
Because the 119th Congress and Trump’s term continue into 2026, there is still time for CLARITY or similar legislation to be enacted. At present, therefore, the prediction is not yet fulfilled nor definitively falsified, so the status is best characterized as inconclusive (too early).