Friedberg @ 00:23:44Inconclusive
economymarkets
Within the next few years (by the end of 2027), a credible alternative to the US dollar as the primary global reserve/settlement asset will emerge, likely associated with the BRICS bloc or similar, leading to a noticeable shift of assets away from USD into that alternative (and into hedges like gold and Bitcoin during the transition).
there may be an alternative that emerges in the next couple of years, and maybe everyone's kind of putting their assets away in gold and, and others and Bitcoin and other stuff while they're waiting for the transition to find another place to buy. We'll see.View on YouTube
Explanation
As of November 30, 2025, the U.S. dollar remains the dominant global reserve and settlement currency, and no single credible alternative reserve asset associated with BRICS (or otherwise) has actually displaced it in a structural way.
Key points:
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USD still dominant as reserve currency
- IMF COFER data and BIS/IMF commentary show the U.S. dollar continues to account for roughly 55–60% of disclosed global foreign‑exchange reserves; the euro, yen, pound, and others make up most of the rest. There is some gradual diversification, but nothing close to a replacement of the dollar as the primary reserve asset.
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BRICS currency / settlement efforts still nascent
- BRICS countries have discussed and, in some cases, piloted alternatives: greater use of local currencies in trade settlements, expansion of the New Development Bank, and repeated talk of a “BRICS currency” or a commodity‑linked unit. However, as of late 2025 there is no widely adopted, liquid, reserve‑quality BRICS currency or asset that central banks hold at scale comparable to the dollar. These efforts are still mostly at the proposal or limited‑pilot stage, not a mature global reserve alternative.
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Shift into gold and Bitcoin is noticeable but not of the described type
- Central banks—especially in emerging markets—have indeed been increasing gold purchases in recent years, partly as a diversification hedge. Bitcoin and other cryptoassets have seen cycles of speculative inflows and price appreciation, but they are not being adopted as primary reserve assets by central banks in a way that constitutes a systemic alternative to the dollar.
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Timeline has not expired yet
- The normalized prediction explicitly allows "within the next few years (by the end of 2027)." It is currently 2025, so there are more than two years left for this to play out. Even though we can say the prediction is not true yet, it is premature to label it definitively right or wrong.
Because the deadline is in the future and the required outcome (a credible alternative reserve asset significantly shifting global reserves and settlements away from USD) has not clearly materialized so far, the correct status is “inconclusive (too early)”, not right or wrong.