And this in a nutshell, is not something that Starbucks can fix with their current product mix. And so I think that they're fighting into a headwind. And these other companies are deeply incentivized to get American taste buds to be different. And so, Jason, the things that you talked about are exactly the things that I think start to fall off the menu or just don't sell as much, because whatever the population of Americans are that are on GLP one, let's say it's single digits. The real question is what percentage of Starbucks customers are on these things? And I think it's probably much more than single digits. And this is why I think you see the continuous decline in same store sales. And I think if you start to graph the adoption of GLP one pervasively in America to the drop in same store sales, I think as GLP one adoption goes up. Same store sales will continue to go down.View on YouTube
Public data show two key things since October 25, 2024:
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GLP‑1 adoption clearly kept rising.
- Multiple reports in 2025 describe GLP‑1 weight‑loss and diabetes drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, Zepbound, etc.) going from niche to mainstream, with about 1 in 8 Americans (≈12–13% of adults) using a GLP‑1 by late 2025, up from lower levels in 2023–24. (axios.com)
- These articles emphasize rapid growth in prescriptions and widespread cultural impact, confirming the “GLP‑1 adoption increases across the U.S.” part of the prediction.
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Starbucks’ same‑store sales did not keep falling as GLP‑1 adoption rose.
Around the time of the prediction, Starbucks’ U.S. comparable store sales were already under pressure: Q3 FY2024 U.S. comps were –2%, and preliminary Q4 FY2024 results showed a 6% decline in U.S. comparable sales, driven by a 10% drop in transactions. (investor.starbucks.com)
After the prediction, however, the pattern is:- Q1 FY2025 (reported Jan 2025): global same‑store sales –4%, North America –4%. (theguardian.com)
- Q2 FY2025 (quarter ended Mar 30, 2025): global comps –1%; U.S. comps –2%. (investor.starbucks.com)
- Q3 FY2025 (quarter ended Jun 29, 2025): global comps –2%; U.S. comps –2%. (investor.starbucks.com)
- Q4 FY2025 (quarter ended Sep 28, 2025): global comparable store sales increased 1%, and U.S. comps were flat (0%), with September turning positive. Starbucks highlighted this as the first quarter of global comp growth after seven quarters of declines. (investor.starbucks.com)
- For the full FY2025, global comps were –1% and U.S. comps –2%, but importantly, the direction stopped being “continuously down” by Q4 FY2025. (investor.starbucks.com)
Chamath’s normalized prediction was stronger than just “GLP‑1 will be a headwind.” He said that as GLP‑1 adoption goes up, Starbucks same‑store sales will continue to go down, and framed this as something Starbucks couldn’t fix with its then‑current offering. In reality, during a period when GLP‑1 usage became mainstream and kept rising, Starbucks’ comps:
- Declined for a while, but
- Then stabilized and turned (slightly) positive globally and flat in the U.S. in Q4 FY2025, even as GLP‑1 adoption remained high and rising.
Because we now observe a quarter where GLP‑1 penetration is higher than ever yet Starbucks’ same‑store sales are no longer falling, the strong directional claim that “as GLP‑1 adoption goes up, same‑store sales will continue to go down” is not borne out by the data. Confounding factors (new CEO, turnaround strategy, pricing, operations, macro environment) make causality murky, but on the literal prediction of ongoing declines with rising GLP‑1 use, the realized sales trajectory contradicts it. Therefore, the prediction is best classified as wrong.