Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Jason @ 00:18:39Inconclusive
economypolitics
Over the next U.S. presidential term (the 4‑year administration beginning January 2025), total additional federal spending/deficits will be on the order of roughly $8–10 trillion regardless of whether the Democrat or Republican candidate wins.
Most of the reports out say they're going to spend another 10 trillion in the next administration, independent of who you vote for… And I think one party will do a tax cut and spend eight, nine, 10 trillion. The other party will spend 10 trillion and maybe raise taxes a little bit. It's going to net net into the same place.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction concerns the entire next U.S. presidential term starting in January 2025 and running through January 2029. As of today (November 30, 2025), that term is less than one year in, with roughly three years still remaining. Final totals for additional federal spending/deficits over the full 4‑year period are therefore not yet known. Even though there are projections (e.g., from the Congressional Budget Office) about future deficits and spending under current law and assumed policies, those are forecasts, not realized outcomes. Because the time period the prediction is about has not finished and the actual cumulative deficits for January 2025–January 2029 are not yet observable, it is too early to judge whether the “$8–10 trillion regardless of who wins” claim is correct.