I'm actually pretty optimistic because I actually don't think it's going to be that close. I mean, right now it's looking like maybe landslide is too strong a word, but a solid victory for Trump. That's what the polls are showing. That's what the prediction markets are showing. That's what the early voting is showing. And if you look at all the other data points right now, it's showing Trump winning pretty handily.View on YouTube
Donald Trump did win the November 5, 2024 U.S. presidential election, receiving 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris’s 226 and winning the national popular vote 49.8% to 48.3% (a margin of about 1.5–1.6 percentage points).(en.wikipedia.org)
However, David Sacks’s prediction was not just that Trump would win, but that he would win “not that close”—a “solid victory” and “pretty handily”—as opposed to a very tight race.
Post‑election analyses characterize 2024 as a close election:
- FiveThirtyEight/ABC’s retrospective explicitly concludes that “the 2024 presidential election was close, not a landslide,” noting Trump’s national popular-vote edge of only about 1.6 points and that Harris would have won the Electoral College had she done just a couple of points better in a few key states.(goodmorningamerica.com)
- Pennsylvania, the tipping‑point state, was decided by roughly 1.7 percentage points (50.4%–48.7%), meaning a swing under 2 points nationwide could have flipped the outcome.(en.wikipedia.org)
- Commentators have stressed that Trump’s margin is historically small, with opinion pieces pushing back on claims of a “landslide” or overwhelming mandate and emphasizing the narrow popular‑vote margin and relatively modest Electoral College spread.(theguardian.com)
Given that:
- The national popular‑vote margin was about 1.5–1.6 points; and
- The tipping‑point state margin was about 1.7 points, leaving the election easily flippable with a small swing; and
- Major analysts explicitly describe the outcome as a close election rather than a landslide or decisive blowout,
Sacks’s qualitative claim that Trump would win “not that close” and “pretty handily” is not borne out by how the results and subsequent expert analyses characterize the 2024 race. The direction (Trump wins) was correct, but the core prediction being evaluated—victory by a clear, not‑close margin—was wrong, so overall this prediction is best scored as wrong.