Based on the actual 2024 U.S. election outcome, Kamala Harris did not win the November 2024 presidential election; Donald Trump won the presidency. This is reported in major U.S. and international coverage of the 2024 election results and subsequent inauguration coverage.

Because Chamath’s prediction was explicitly conditional — "what happens if Kamala Harris wins" — the condition (Harris winning) never occurred. The forecast concerned how markets would react in that counterfactual scenario, so we cannot empirically test whether the stated reversals in long‑term yields, the dollar, and flows into gold/Bitcoin/equities would have happened.

Since enough time has passed but the antecedent did not occur, the correctness of the prediction cannot be determined from real‑world data, making it ambiguous rather than right, wrong, or merely too early to tell.