So the two pieces here that we haven't seen before is what happens when you put another, I don't know, $20 trillion of debt into the US economy. And what happens when companies, the big ones, stop hiring and they just become wildly efficient and become wildly profitable, and this will be a renters rentiers, you know, story where people who have equities and people who own property are going to do fabulous over the next 5 to 10 years, and then the 40%, 50% of people who don't are going to really be feeling a pinch.View on YouTube
The prediction explicitly covers a 5–10 year horizon starting from October 2024, so as of November 30, 2025 we are only ~1 year in—too early to know whether the long‑run outcomes on debt, corporate behavior, and distributional effects will materialize.
Available data so far are broadly consistent with possibility but not confirmation of the debt part: U.S. gross federal debt was about $35.7T in Oct 2024 and around $38.1T by early November 2025, an increase of roughly $2.2T in one year. (theworlddata.com) If that pace persisted for a decade it would be on the order of +$20T, but future policy and macro shocks are highly uncertain, so this cannot yet be judged right or wrong.
Large firms are clearly emphasizing efficiency and doing layoffs, especially tied to automation and AI, but they have not literally “stopped hiring,” and the overall labor market remains relatively stable: unemployment claims are near a 7‑month low even as high‑profile layoffs mount. (businessinsider.com) Corporate profits remain high—rising 5.1% in 2024 with small quarterly moves in 2025—suggesting continued profitability but not yet an extraordinary structural break. (bea.gov)
Asset‑owner performance has been solid but we only have a short sample: the S&P 500 is up about 16% in 2025 year‑to‑date, and national home prices are still rising a few percent per year. (statmuse.com) That’s positive for equity and real‑estate holders but far from demonstrating that they will do “fabulously” over an entire 5–10 year period.
On the distributional side, the Federal Reserve’s 2024 household well‑being survey (fielded near the time of the prediction) finds about 73% of adults say they are at least doing OK financially, leaving 27% saying they are just getting by or finding it hard to get by—evidence of strain, but not the 40–50% share the prediction envisages, and we lack multi‑year forward data to see whether that group rises into the forecasted range. (federalreserve.gov)
Because (a) the forecast is explicitly long‑term (5–10 years), and (b) current evidence neither clearly confirms nor clearly falsifies the magnitude of the debt increase, the persistence of ultra‑lean hiring at large firms, or the specific severity/scale of financial stress among 40–50% of Americans, the prediction’s accuracy cannot yet be determined.