This prediction is about the timing of major federal fiscal austerity: Jason says it likely won’t occur in the 2025–2029 administration but that the following administration (roughly 2029–2033) “is going to have to do some belt tightening.” As of today (November 30, 2025), the 2029–2033 administration has not begun, so there is no way to observe whether it will in fact implement “significant federal fiscal austerity measures.”

Current analyses of the U.S. fiscal outlook (e.g., Brookings, Stanford’s SIEPR) do emphasize that debt and deficits are on an unsustainable path and that at some point non-trivial tax increases and/or spending cuts will likely be required, but those are forward‑looking warnings, not evidence about what will actually be done in 2029–2033. (brookings.edu)

Because the administration window the prediction refers to is entirely in the future, the prediction cannot yet be evaluated, so the correct status is “inconclusive (too early)”.