Available election data since early 2021 show no broad U.S. voter movement systematically ousting incumbents and replacing them with outsider, anti–special-interest candidates.

Across federal, state, and major local races in the November 2022 general election, 94% of incumbents won re‑election, with congressional incumbents (U.S. House and Senate) winning at about a 98% rate, slightly higher than in 2020. This indicates strong incumbent survival rather than a wave of voters “voting insiders out of office.” (inkl.com)

Analysts at the Public Affairs Council and Inside Elections explicitly argued in mid‑2022 that the U.S. was not experiencing a classic “throw the bums out” or anti‑incumbent election, despite low congressional job approval—again emphasizing that incumbents were generally safe. (pac.org)

The same pattern persisted in 2024: an analysis of the November 2024 general election found that about 95% of incumbents nationwide who ran for re‑election won, with congressional incumbents again in the mid‑90s–high‑90s success range, even amid strong public dissatisfaction with “political elites.” (govfacts.org) Detailed 2024 House results, such as in California and Texas, show seat after seat where the status line is “incumbent re‑elected,” with only a small number of losses or open‑seat turnovers—hardly a mass revolt against office‑holding insiders. (en.wikipedia.org)

There are localized examples of insurgent or outsider energy—e.g., hard‑right Freedom Caucus candidates in Wyoming winning enough primaries to control the state House, or multiple Texas state House incumbents losing 2024 primaries—but these are limited, state‑level skirmishes rather than a sustained, nationwide voter movement overthrowing entrenched incumbents at scale. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because incumbency re‑election rates remained extremely high and analysts explicitly characterize recent cycles as not anti‑incumbent, the prediction of a substantial, nationwide movement of voters “rising up” to vote insiders out and replace them with non‑beholden newcomers did not come true in the years after early 2021.