Friedberg @ 01:10:42Inconclusive
economygovernment
By the end of calendar year 2025, total U.S. federal debt will be approximately $40 trillion, and at an average interest rate of about 4% this will imply on the order of $1.6 trillion per year in federal interest expense.
which means that by the end of 2025, we could be staring at $40 trillion of federal debt. And if you do the math on that, at 4% interest, it's 1.6 trillion a year of interest expense a year just on interest expense on the outstanding debt
Explanation
The prediction is explicitly time-bound to “by the end of 2025” (i.e., around December 31, 2025). Today’s date is November 30, 2025, so the specified time horizon has not yet elapsed. While we can look at current data on U.S. federal debt and interest outlays, we cannot yet definitively say what the totals will be by year‑end 2025, including any late‑year issuance, policy changes, or interest‑rate moves. Therefore, the accuracy of this prediction cannot yet be determined and is too early to call.