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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Jason @ 00:58:52Inconclusive
techai
Once AR glasses become lighter and more mature as a product category (implicitly within the next several years), they will handle roughly one‑third of the tasks that people currently perform on their phones, with users commonly interacting via a combination of phone, watch, earbuds, and glasses.
you'll have something on like focus mode or whatever the equivalent is in Apple, and a message will come in from your spouse or from your child, but you won't have to take your phone out of your pocket. And I think once these things weigh a lot less, you're going to have four different ways to interact with your computer in your pocket your phone, your watch, your AirPods, whatever you have in your ears and the glasses. And I bet you glasses are going to take like a third of the tasks you do.View on YouTube
Explanation

As of November 30, 2025, the preconditions for Jason’s prediction have not been met, and the time horizon (“once these things weigh a lot less…”, implicitly “over the next several years”) is far from exhausted.

Smart‑glasses are clearly progressing but are still a niche, early‑adopter product rather than a mature, mass‑market replacement for a large share of smartphone usage. Meta’s Ray‑Ban line has sold only a few million units since launch and, while successful within its niche, is described as a specialty gadget whose U.S. smart‑glasses market remains small, despite sales roughly tripling in 2025. (reuters.com) Surveys likewise show modest ownership (around mid‑single‑digit percentages) and only partial consumer interest, not anything close to universal usage. (spglobal.com) That level of adoption is far below what would be needed for glasses to handle “about one‑third” of everyday phone tasks for the average person.

On the hardware side, major players still struggle to deliver lightweight, all‑day AR glasses with phone‑class performance and battery life. Apple, for example, has repeatedly postponed or canceled AR‑glasses projects because current technology cannot yet deliver a comfortable, glasses‑sized device with sufficient power and thermal characteristics, and is instead focusing on headsets or future smart‑glasses concepts. (macworld.com) Industry analyses also highlight unresolved constraints around weight (roughly 50 g as a practical limit), battery life, and full AR capability. (ainvest.com)

Since (1) the envisioned hardware (“once these things weigh a lot less”) is not yet fully realized, (2) mainstream behavior has not shifted so that glasses routinely take over ~⅓ of smartphone tasks, and (3) the prediction’s timeframe is multi‑year and has not elapsed, it is too early to judge definitively whether Jason’s forecast will prove right or wrong.