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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Friedberg @ 00:55:40Inconclusive
techai
By roughly ten years after September 27, 2024 (i.e., by around late 2034), conventional mobile handsets (smartphones carried in a pocket with primary interaction via touchscreens and on-screen app/browser interfaces) will no longer be the dominant personal computing interface; they will be largely superseded by ambient/AR-style computing interfaces.
I don't think that mobile handsets are going to be around in ten years. I don't think we're going to have this like phone in our pocket that we're like pressing buttons on and touching and telling it where on the browser to go to the browser interface is going to go away.View on YouTube
Explanation

It is too early to determine whether this prediction is right or wrong.

The claim is explicitly about the world roughly 10 years after September 27, 2024 (around late 2034). Today’s date is November 30, 2025, so only a little over one year has passed. The scenario the predictor is talking about (late 2034) has not occurred yet, so we cannot judge outcomes that depend on that future date.

What we can say about the present is that smartphones are still the dominant personal computing interface:

  • In 2025, ~59–64% of global web traffic comes from mobile devices (primarily smartphones), with desktop around 36–40%. (mynewitguys.com)
  • Articles summarizing 2025 data repeatedly describe smartphones as the main way people access the internet, indicating they remain the central personal computing device. (techgaged.com)
  • Major tech leaders (e.g., Sundar Pichai at Google and Andrew Bosworth at Meta) say smartphones will stay dominant for at least the next several years, even as AR/smart glasses and ambient computing evolve. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com)

However, these observations only tell us that the transition has not happened yet in 2025; they do not prove that it won’t happen by ~2034. Because the prediction’s target date is still almost nine years away, the correct evaluation status is "inconclusive" (too early) rather than "right" or "wrong."