Chamath’s prediction in the Sept 20, 2024 episode was that once all All‑In Summit clips were released and “baked for a couple of months,” their combined views on YouTube and X would be “around 50 million.” This is explicitly framed in the transcript as a forward‑looking estimate based on roughly 20M early views for about half the clips. (podscripts.co)

What we can verify:

1. YouTube channel totals. The main All‑In Podcast YouTube channel has about 148.6M lifetime views as of Nov 23, 2025; SocialBlade showed roughly 120M views around mid‑2025. (speakrj.com) That 120M figure has to cover:

   • All regular podcast episodes (hundreds of videos since 2020), plus
   • Summit recordings from 2022, 2023, 2024, and early 2025. Given this, it’s unlikely (though not impossible) that 2024 summit clips alone contributed ~50M views on YouTube by early 2025, but the aggregate numbers don’t let us isolate the summit share.

2. Per‑video YouTube views for key 2024 summit talks. Third‑party sites that scrape YouTube give sample view counts such as:

   • Elon Musk | All‑In Summit 2024: ~0.9–1.5M views depending on snapshot. (glasp.co)
   • John Mearsheimer & Jeffrey Sachs | All‑In Summit 2024: roughly 1–2M views across different snapshots. (ytscribe.com)
   • Peter Thiel | All‑In Summit 2024: around 0.7–0.8M views. (metapodcast.net) Even assuming similar or somewhat lower numbers for other big‑name sessions (Sergey Brin, Travis Kalanick, Marc Benioff, JD Vance, Megyn Kelly, etc.), a reasonable estimate for YouTube views across all 2024 summit long‑form videos lands in the single‑digit to low‑teens millions, not obviously near 50M.

3. Historical benchmark from 2023 summit. A LinkedIn recap of the 2023 All‑In Summit notes that the top two panels (Elon Musk; Mearsheimer/Sachs) were at ~955k and ~918k YouTube views respectively, and that the hosts hoped future summit recordings could reach about 50M views on YouTube and X combined. (linkedin.com) This shows the 50M figure was aspirational and that, even after a year, the prior summit’s biggest videos were around the 1M mark each—again consistent with a total far below 50M purely on YouTube.

4. X (Twitter) views are not auditable. Chamath’s 50M target explicitly included X, but:

   • X does not provide a public, summable API endpoint for total video/impression views per campaign.
   • We can see that various summit clips (for example, those shared by the @theallinpod account and amplifying accounts like @tsarnick) were widely circulated, but their individual view/impression counts are not systematically archived by reliable third‑party analytics in a way we can sum across all clips. (gaganghotra.com)
   • No credible article or later podcast segment appears to report a consolidated, verifiable figure like “the All‑In Summit 2024 clips did 50M+ views across YouTube and X.”

5. Timing ambiguity. The prediction was “around 50 million … when all the clips are released and you let it bake for a couple of months.” (podscripts.co) We do not have:

   • a clear public date when all summit clips finished rolling out, nor
   • any third‑party time‑series data tying combined YouTube+X views to that 2–3 month post‑release window.

Given all this:

• We can say with some confidence that YouTube alone appears to fall well short of 50M views for the 2024 summit content in the relevant timeframe.
• However, the prediction was explicitly about YouTube plus X combined, and we lack trustworthy, aggregate X view data to either confirm or rule out the total.
• No later authoritative source (press, analytics firm, or the hosts themselves) publishes a clear combined number that would settle it either way.

Because the necessary cross‑platform view data is not publicly reconstructable—despite enough time having passed—the truth of Chamath’s “~50M combined views” prediction cannot be determined from available evidence, so the correct grading is ambiguous, not confidently “right” or “wrong.”