the fact that we've gone from 50% of people being able to raise a fund to 12% means that a lot of people will get washed out of the industry. Less capital being raised, which probably is foreshadowing the fact that these companies will need a lot less capital.View on YouTube
The prediction is framed over “the next several years,” so by November 30, 2025 only ~14 months have elapsed—too little to know whether VC fundraising will remain structurally lower than 2020–2021 for the entire horizon.
Data so far do line up with key parts of Chamath’s view: the number of active U.S. VC firms has already fallen by more than 25% from 2021 to 2024, indicating a substantial washout of managers as capital concentrates in a smaller set of large platforms. (ft.com) Fundraising volumes are also far below the 2021 peak: global VC fundraising in 2024 was about $160.6B versus $403.6B in 2021 (down ~60%), U.S. VC funds raised about $76.8B across 538 funds in 2024, and H1 2025 raised only $26.6B across 238 funds—on pace for the lowest fundraising year in a decade. (sourcery.vc) Capital is increasingly concentrated: in 2024, just 30 U.S. firms captured 75% of commitments and nine firms took roughly half, while by Q3 2025 the top 10 funds accounted for 42.9% of all capital raised and the count of emerging-manager funds hit its lowest level since 2015. (linkedin.com) All of this supports the “many VCs washed out, structurally lower fundraising so far” part of the thesis.
Where the evidence is less clear is the causal link that lower fundraising reflects startups needing “a lot less capital.” Median early‑stage round sizes have continued to rise, hitting record levels in 2024–2025, and analysts note that even with AI-driven efficiency, early‑stage check sizes are growing faster than inflation, not shrinking; instead, capital is being rationed into fewer, larger winners rather than broadly reduced because companies inherently need less money. (axios.com) At the same time, some AI and infrastructure startups remain extraordinarily capital‑intensive, with multi‑billion‑dollar rounds. (reuters.com)
Because (1) the time window he specified (“several years”) has not yet played out and (2) the mechanism he posits about companies fundamentally needing less capital is only partially supported and partly contradicted by current data, it is too early to say the full multi‑part prediction is definitively right or wrong; it is best classified as inconclusive so far, though early fundraising and firm‑consolidation trends are directionally consistent with his view.