Chamath @ 00:37:27Right
marketseconomy
Despite expecting a technical recession by around August 2025, there is a substantial probability that major US equity indices (e.g., S&P 500 and/or NASDAQ) will be higher in level than they were at the time of this conversation in early August 2024.
But I also think that there's a pretty decent chance the market will be up.View on YouTube
Explanation
Chamath’s claim was that by around August 2025, there was a “pretty decent chance the market will be up” relative to early August 2024 levels.
Using the podcast date (August 9, 2024) as the reference point:
- On August 9, 2024, the S&P 500 closed at 5,344.16, and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 16,745.30.【2search3】2search7】2search2】
- By late August 2025, both indices were clearly higher. On August 29, 2025, the S&P 500 closed at 6,460.26 (about 21% above its Aug 9, 2024 level), and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 21,455.55 (roughly 28% higher than Aug 9, 2024).【1search7】1search0】1search5】
- News reports also note that by September 9, 2025, the S&P 500 (6,512.61) and Nasdaq (21,879.49) were at or near record highs, confirming that major U.S. equity indices were significantly above their early‑August‑2024 levels.【2news13】
Whether or not a “technical recession” occurred is not necessary to evaluate the directional market call. The key observable claim—that major U.S. equity indices would likely be higher by around August 2025 than they were in early August 2024—did in fact materialize. Therefore, this prediction is best classified as right.