BEA data show that real U.S. GDP growth was positive in the quarters around the podcast date: it increased at an annualized rate of about 3.0% in Q2 2024, 3.1% in Q3 2024, and 2.4% in Q4 2024, followed by a contraction of –0.6% in Q1 2025 and then a rebound of 3.8% growth in Q2 2025. (apps.bea.gov) Thus, there was only one quarter of negative real GDP (Q1 2025) before growth turned positive again; at no point by roughly August 2025 did the U.S. experience two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, the “technical recession” criterion specified in the normalized prediction. Additionally, business‑cycle dating series and NBER communications indicate no new recession episodes after the brief COVID-19 recession in 2020, reinforcing that no recession—technical or official—was recorded in that 2024–2025 window. (nber.org) Therefore, Chamath’s expectation that the U.S. would “probably be in a technical recession” about a year after the August 2024 discussion did not come to pass.