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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Friedberg @ 00:41:02Wrong
economy
Within the next year from this conversation (by roughly August 2025), there is a greater-than-not probability that the US economy will enter a recession (e.g., exhibit two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP or a comparably recognized recessionary condition).
Yeah, I think there's a great chance of a recession.View on YouTube
Explanation

Friedberg’s normalized prediction was that there was a greater‑than‑not (>50%) probability the U.S. would enter a recession within about one year of the August 9, 2024 episode (by ~August 2025).

By that date, the commonly used recession criteria were not met:

  1. Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP did not occur. Real U.S. GDP grew at annualized rates of about 3.1% in Q3 2024 and 2.4% in Q4 2024, then fell 0.5% in Q1 2025 and rebounded 3.3% in Q2 2025. That is, only one quarter (Q1 2025) was negative, and it was followed by strong positive growth, so the “two negative quarters” rule-of-thumb for a recession was not satisfied.

    • Q3 2024: +3.1% real GDP growth.
    • Q4 2024: +2.4%.
    • Q1 2025: –0.5% (contraction), largely attributed to a surge of imports ahead of new tariffs.
    • Q2 2025: +3.3% rebound.

    (apnews.com)

  2. No officially dated NBER recession in that window. The National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating pages still report the most recent peak in U.S. economic activity as February 2020 and the trough as April 2020, with no later peaks or troughs announced as of late 2025. (nber.org) Since NBER is the standard arbiter of U.S. recessions and has not declared a new recession after the short 2020 downturn, there is no recognized recession starting between August 2024 and August 2025.

  3. Broader data and commentary describe a slowdown, not a recession in that period. Full‑year 2024 U.S. real GDP growth is estimated around 2.8%, with projections around 2% for 2025, indicating continued (if slower) expansion rather than an outright contraction. (en.wikipedia.org) While some analysts and even an NBER research paper discussed elevated probabilities (e.g., a model‑based 71% chance the U.S. was in recession as of May 2025), these were probabilistic assessments and not confirmations that a recession had actually begun. (linkedin.com)

Given that (a) the two‑negative‑quarter GDP criterion was not met within the forecast window, and (b) the NBER has not subsequently dated any recession in that period, the U.S. did not enter a generally recognized recession between August 9, 2024 and August 9, 2025. Consequently, a forecast that the probability of such a recession was greater than 50% turned out to be wrong in outcome (the event did not occur in the stated timeframe), even if many contemporaneous forecasters viewed recession risk as elevated.