ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Jason @ 00:57:45Inconclusive
techmarkets
Within a few years after losing the default-search TAC deal with Google as a result of this antitrust case, Apple will acquire an existing search engine company (e.g., DuckDuckGo, Brave, or similar) and operate its own first‑party search engine, using it to significantly expand Apple’s own advertising network.
My prediction is Apple buys a search engine and they go it alone and expand their advertising network like Amazon, Uber and other companies have.View on YouTube
Explanation

As of November 30, 2025, the key trigger condition for Jason’s prediction has not occurred, and the time window he specified has not started.

  1. Apple has not (yet) lost the Google default‑search TAC deal as a remedy of the DOJ antitrust case.

    • Judge Amit Mehta’s remedies ruling in the U.S. search‑monopoly case against Google (United States v. Google LLC, 2020) in September 2025 barred exclusive arrangements and required Google to share some search data, but explicitly allowed Google to continue paying partners like Apple to be the default search engine. (barrons.com)
    • Reporting around the case and Apple’s own filings repeatedly describe Apple as still benefiting from a multibillion‑dollar default‑search agreement with Google (about $20B/year), and Apple has been actively trying to protect that revenue stream in the remedies phase. (theverge.com)
      Since the deal continues, the condition “after losing the default‑search TAC deal with Google as a result of this antitrust case” has not been met.

  2. Apple has not bought an existing search engine or launched a full Google‑style first‑party web search engine.

    • There is no record through late 2025 of Apple acquiring DuckDuckGo, Brave Search, or any similar web search engine. Public reporting and reference sources continue to list DuckDuckGo and Brave Search as independent companies/products, not Apple subsidiaries. (en.wikipedia.org)
    • In fact, Apple’s services chief Eddy Cue has told the court that Apple has no plans to build a standalone Google‑rival search engine, calling such an effort economically and technically impractical; Apple instead emphasizes AI‑driven search features layered on top of existing providers. (theverge.com)
      This undercuts the likelihood of the prediction but doesn’t make it logically false, because it concerns Apple’s future behavior after a potential loss of the Google deal.

  3. Time horizon: “within a few years after losing the deal.”
    Jason’s prediction is explicitly conditional and long‑dated: only after Apple loses the TAC deal as a result of this case does a “within a few years” clock start. Given that (a) Apple has not yet lost the deal, and (b) the contract itself is reported to run at least into 2026 with possible extensions, the specified time window for the predicted acquisition has not even begun. (reuters.com)

Because the triggering event (loss of the TAC deal) has not occurred and the stated “few years” window has not started, there is not yet a factual basis to declare the prediction either correct or incorrect. It remains too early to tell, so the outcome is inconclusive.