Chamath’s conditional prediction was that if Kamala Harris did not clearly define her positions on 4–5 key issues, she would win the national popular vote but lose the Electoral College in the November 2024 election.

In reality, in the 2024 U.S. presidential election Donald Trump won both the Electoral College and the national popular vote: 312–226 in the Electoral College and 49.8%–48.3% in the popular vote (about a 2.3 million vote margin over Harris). (en.wikipedia.org) This directly contradicts the popular-vote/EC split he described.

The antecedent of his conditional (“in the absence of her defining herself on those 4 or 5 issues”) is also dubious: Harris’s 2024 campaign publicly set out positions on major issues such as abortion rights, an “opportunity economy” and middle‑class tax relief, housing affordability, border security and immigration reform, and her stance on the Israel–Gaza conflict in speeches, interviews, and on her campaign site. (en.wikipedia.org) While one could debate whether this met Chamath’s personal standard of “clearly defining” her positions, the concrete electoral outcome he forecast (popular‑vote win combined with Electoral College loss) did not occur.

Because the verifiable part of the prediction—Harris winning the popular vote while losing the Electoral College—was false in the world that actually happened, this prediction is best classified as wrong.