Subsequent official investigations align with Jason’s core prediction that Thomas Matthew Crooks would be treated as a lone-wolf attacker rather than part of an organized political plot. A major FBI briefing in November 2025, summarized in outlets like Fox News and People, reported that after reviewing 35 financial and social‑media accounts, 13 devices, and over 1,000 interviews, the Bureau concluded Crooks acted alone and found “no evidence” that any foreign or domestic individual, organization, or government directed, inspired, or assisted him. (foxnews.com) Other coverage of the same findings likewise emphasizes that there was no supporting network and no second shooter, debunking conspiracy or organized‑plot theories. (nypost.com)

On motive, the FBI and independent reporting still state that it is formally unknown, and that investigators have not identified a clear ideological or political driver. Wikipedia and later summaries describe the motive as “unknown,” and note that extensive inquiry has failed to produce a definitive political or organizational explanation. (en.wikipedia.org) However, multiple FBI‑linked briefings and expert analyses paint a picture close to what Jason anticipated: Crooks is described as a socially isolated “loner” who fit standard assassin / mass‑shooter profiles, with the FBI suggesting a “complex interplay of personal grievances, mental health issues and a desire for notoriety,” and former agents saying he appeared less like an ideologue and more like an anti‑social individual seeking fame. (foxnews.com) These accounts explicitly contrast psychological and anti‑social factors with organized or ideological direction.

Because the investigative consensus is that Crooks was a lone actor and not part of any organized political plot, and because the post‑hoc framing emphasizes psychological/mental‑health and anti‑social issues rather than a clear political conspiracy, Jason’s directional claim matches how the case is now officially characterized. The narrow detail that investigators have not formally declared “mental illness” as the singular, primary cause keeps the prediction from being perfectly word‑for‑word accurate, but its main thrust—lone disturbed individual, not an organized political plot—has been borne out, so it is best scored as right.