That's it, it's over. Trump's won. It was probably one of the most iconic patriotic visuals I think any of us have seen... Third thing I thought is it doesn't matter if Biden drops out now because it's over. Biden could stay in. He could leave. Um, this just feels like a lot of momentum.View on YouTube
Donald Trump did, in fact, win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Official results show Trump/ Vance defeating Harris/Walz with 312 electoral votes to 226 and winning the popular vote with about 49.8% to 48.3%.(en.wikipedia.org)
Joe Biden subsequently did drop out of the race on July 21, 2024, and Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee; Trump still won against her in November.(en.wikipedia.org)
So in the scenario that actually occurred (Biden drops out and is replaced by Harris), Friedberg’s effective prediction that “it’s over, Trump’s won” was borne out. The stronger claim that Trump would win even if Biden had stayed in is counterfactual and can’t be directly tested, but standard forecast scoring evaluates only the realized world. On that basis, the prediction is judged right.