However, at the end of the day, I don't think the Democrats can afford to do that because they're already in a state of chaos right now. And if they finally succeed in pushing Biden overboard, the last thing they're going to want to do is have the chaos of an open primary, even if it is a speedrun primary. I think they're just going to have to go to Kamala Harris. I think that's what they've decided. I think that if they succeed in pushing Biden out, which does seem probably more likely than not at this point, I think it's got to be Harris, and I think she's going to be the nominee.View on YouTube
Joe Biden did in fact withdraw from the 2024 race on July 21, 2024, giving up his status as the presumptive Democratic nominee and endorsing Kamala Harris shortly afterward. (en.wikipedia.org)
After Biden’s exit, Democrats did not run a new, open, voter-facing primary or “speedrun” primary. Instead, the DNC set up a delegate petition process for the nomination: candidates needed at least 300 delegate signatures to qualify for the ballot. Only Kamala Harris met that threshold, with 3,923 delegates backing her; no other candidate qualified. (democrats.org) Delegates then participated in a virtual roll call from August 1–5, 2024, in which Harris received roughly 99% of votes and became the official Democratic nominee. (cbsnews.com)
Critics and later retrospectives explicitly described the switch as replacing Biden with Harris without holding an open primary and lamented that there hadn’t been one, underscoring that no genuine open or rushed primary contest ever occurred once Biden stepped aside. (en.wikipedia.org)
Given that (1) Biden stepped down, (2) Democrats did not hold an open/speedrun primary, and (3) Kamala Harris was selected and became the nominee through a largely uncontested delegate process, Chamath’s conditional prediction matches what actually happened.