In any event, that's coming out this weekend. I think the Biden presidency basically hinges on this interview. If Biden can show that he's sharp and he's responsive and not senile...I think if he knocks it out of the park, maybe he can quell all of this speculation. But if not, if it goes poorly, then I think he's done.View on YouTube
Available reporting shows that the George Stephanopoulos ABC interview on July 5, 2024 did not restore confidence in Biden’s candidacy and instead was widely seen by key Democrats as failing to quell anxieties:
- Coverage immediately afterward noted that the interview “did not assuage Democratic anxieties” and that more Democratic lawmakers publicly called on Biden to bow out of the race, adding to a growing chorus of concerned donors and strategists.(cnbc.com)
- Hill Democrats described the interview as “not impressive,” saying “no one’s mind has been changed” and that Biden was “toast,” with lawmakers preparing to increase public pressure for him to step aside.(axios.com) ABC’s own follow‑up segment framed the situation as “pressure mounts on Biden after ABC News interview,” explicitly noting that the hoped‑for calming effect inside the party did not materialize and that the number of Democrats urging him to exit was growing.(abcnews.go.com) The Guardian similarly called the appearance “unlikely to appease his critics,” despite no major gaffes.(theguardian.com) Together this indicates the interview was broadly perceived as weak or at best mixed, not the kind of strong performance that would quell speculation.
What happened next lines up with the prediction’s “poor interview” branch:
- Over the following days, intra‑party and donor pressure intensified, with more Democratic members of Congress and influential figures calling for Biden to step aside, largely rooted in concerns over his age, debate performance, and failure to calm fears in subsequent appearances, including the ABC interview.(cnbc.com)(axios.com)
- On July 21, 2024—roughly 16 days after the interview—Biden announced he was dropping out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement, explicitly bowing to “weeks of growing pressure” from within his own party.(cnbc.com)(axios.com) He thus exited the race within “the subsequent weeks,” as the prediction specified.
- Following his withdrawal, Kamala Harris launched her campaign on July 21 and officially became the Democratic presidential nominee on August 5, 2024, meaning Biden was not ultimately the Democratic nominee.(en.wikipedia.org)
The prediction, as normalized, said: if the Stephanopoulos interview was broadly perceived as strong, pressure would subside; if it was broadly perceived as poor, Biden would be forced out within the next few weeks and would not end up as the nominee. The realized path matches the second branch: the interview was widely judged as failing in its core goal of reassuring Democrats, pressure escalated rather than subsided, and within about two weeks Biden ended his campaign and Harris became the nominee. Given these facts, the prediction is best classified as right.