U.S. data since early July 2024 show a slowdown but not the start of a broad, sustained recession.

• No official U.S. recession has been declared. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is the standard arbiter of U.S. business cycles, has not announced any new recession peaks or troughs after the COVID-related cycle dated around 2020; its announcements page lists no recession starting in or after 2024. (nber.org)
• GDP kept growing through late 2024. BEA figures show real GDP grew 3.1% (annual rate) in Q3 2024 and about 2.4% in Q4 2024, with full‑year 2024 real GDP up 2.8% over 2023—consistent with expansion, not recession. (apps.bea.gov)
• Early‑2025 weakness was brief, not a sustained downturn. An advance BEA estimate showed real GDP dipping at a –0.3% annual rate in Q1 2025, but data from BEA/Moody’s Analytics indicate GDP rose again in Q2 2025, breaking the pattern needed for the common “two negative quarters” rule of thumb and falling short of the NBER’s broader recession criteria. (bea.gov)
• Overall 2024–2025 narrative is slowdown, not recession. Official releases and major news coverage describe the U.S. economy as growing at around 2.8% in 2024 with continued (though slower) growth into 2025, helped by strong consumer spending and AI‑related investment, rather than entering a contractionary phase. (apnews.com)

Because more than a year has passed since the July 2024 prediction and neither official dating committees nor macro data show the onset of a U.S. recession, the forecast that a recession was imminently “on the offing” based on Rick’s Cabaret stock performance has not come true.