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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / In conversation with President Trump
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Friedberg @ 00:56:09Wrong
politicseconomy
If Donald Trump attempts to implement his proposed tariff policy in a future term, his economic advisers will push for changes such that any eventual tariff measures will be significantly scaled back and limited to narrower parts of the economy compared to his current broad proposals.
Once the economic advisers get together and look at the analysis and what this will do to costs of things, inflation will go up, etc., you know, maybe there's a rethink ultimately on how that's implemented and on what particular slices of the economy it's implemented. So I'm sure, as you point out, it probably gets toned down for this to, you know, to even become a reality.View on YouTube
Explanation

Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign trade platform centered on broad, across‑the‑board tariffs — notably a 10% (or higher) universal tariff on all imports and around 60% on Chinese goods. FactCheck.org and other analyses describe these as economy‑wide proposals, not narrow sectoral measures.(factcheck.org)

In office during his second term, Trump has substantially implemented that broad vision:

  • In April 2025 he invoked emergency powers (IEEPA) to impose a 10% baseline tariff on almost all U.S. imports, plus higher “reciprocal” tariffs for dozens of countries. Reuters describes this as a “sweeping overhaul” of the global trading system, not a narrow, sector‑limited policy.(reuters.com)
  • Reporting and tax advisories summarize the new regime as a 10% across‑the‑board baseline with elevated country‑specific rates (e.g., 20–46% on major partners, and much higher on China).(grantthornton.com)
  • For China specifically, tariffs were pushed far beyond the original 60% idea: combined measures briefly raised effective rates to about 145% on Chinese imports before being partially reduced in the context of negotiations, still leaving very elevated duties in place.(en.wikipedia.org)

There was a temporary 90‑day pause on many of the new above‑10% “reciprocal” tariffs after a market crash, but the 10% universal tariff remained in effect, sector‑specific duties on items like autos, steel and aluminum continued, and many country‑specific hikes were later implemented anyway. Estimates put the average applied U.S. tariff rate around 27%, the highest in more than a century — again indicating a broad, not narrowly targeted, regime.(en.wikipedia.org)

Friedberg’s prediction was that if Trump pursued this agenda, economic advisers would force a major rethink so that any actual tariff program would be toned down and confined to “particular slices of the economy” rather than implemented broadly. In reality, Trump has enacted and largely maintained a sweeping, economy‑wide tariff structure with only limited carve‑outs and tactical pauses, and in some respects (e.g., China rates) has gone well beyond the original headline numbers.

Because the broad, across‑the‑economy tariff policy has in fact been implemented and sustained, rather than significantly scaled back to narrow sectors, the prediction is wrong.