Jason’s prediction is about the next AI adoption cycle, i.e., a multi‑year future trajectory, not a specific state by late 2025. That cycle is clearly still unfolding, so it’s too early to say definitively whether Apple will ultimately become the dominant consumer AI assistant platform.

As of November 30, 2025, Apple has launched Apple Intelligence across iOS, iPadOS, macOS and VisionOS, but rollout is still constrained by hardware (A17‑class and newer) and staged language/region support, indicating an early and incomplete deployment rather than a mature, settled market position. (de.wikipedia.org) Apple has also moved to license Google’s Gemini model for a redesigned Siri, with major Siri upgrades not expected until 2026, which shows Apple is still catching up technically rather than already having secured a clear, enduring lead. (reuters.com)

Across personal devices, Apple’s installed base remains much smaller than competitors on key platforms where AI assistants run: Android holds about 72% of the global mobile OS market versus ~28% for iOS, and Windows dominates desktop/laptop OS share, which underpins broad deployment of Microsoft’s Copilot and other assistants. (en.wikipedia.org) In adjacent consumer‑assistant arenas like smart speakers and smart‑home voice AI, Amazon Alexa and Google Assistant still lead, with Apple Siri/HomePod participating but not in a clearly dominant position. (market.us)

Taken together, current evidence shows Apple is a strong but not dominant player in consumer AI assistants as of late 2025, while the broader “AI adoption cycle” for assistants on phones, tablets, and PCs is still in its early to middle stages. Because the prediction is explicitly about who will win over that entire cycle, and the outcome has not yet been determined, the correct status today is inconclusive (too early) rather than right or wrong.