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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Chamath @ 01:22:31Wrong
economypolitics
By the time of the U.S. 2024 general election (November 5, 2024), there is a material chance that at least one quarterly U.S. real GDP print immediately preceding the election will be negative, indicating recessionary conditions going into the election.
We could have a negative recessionary print going into the election cycle. I think that's very possible.View on YouTube
Explanation

BEA data show that all U.S. real GDP prints leading into the November 5, 2024 election were positive:

  • Q1 2024: Real GDP grew at a 1.4% annual rate (third estimate). (bea.gov)
  • Q2 2024: Real GDP grew at a 3.0% annual rate (second estimate). (bea.gov)
  • Q3 2024: Real GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate (advance and second estimates). (bea.gov)

Other compiled series of quarterly real GDP also show continuous positive growth from Q1–Q4 2024, with Q3 and Q4 2024 at 3.1% and ~2.4% respectively, and the first negative quarter only appearing in Q1 2025 (about –0.3%). (visualcapitalist.com)

Chamath’s claim was that it was “very possible” (a material chance) that there would be a negative, recessionary GDP print going into the election. In reality, the quarterly GDP growth rate immediately preceding the election (Q3 2024) was clearly positive, and no negative GDP quarter occurred before November 5, 2024. Thus, judged on the event outcome (whether such a negative pre‑election print actually happened), the prediction did not come true.