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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Chamath @ 01:13:24Right
economymarkets
In the near term (i.e., over the upcoming rate‑setting cycle in 2024–2025), the U.S. economy will slow such that (a) unemployment will rise from current levels, (b) real GDP will contract (at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth), and (c) the Federal Reserve will implement more than one interest rate cut before the cycle is over.
So I think what we're starting to see is that for the large portion of the economy, we've run out of cash to spend. And as a result, I do think that we are going to see an economic slowing... So I think unemployment is going back up. I think GDP is going to shrink. Yeah. And so I kind of tend to be in this camp that we're going to see more than one rate cut.View on YouTube
Explanation

All three concrete elements of Chamath’s near‑term macro call have already occurred within the 2024–2025 rate‑setting cycle:

  1. Unemployment rose from mid‑2024 levels.

    • In June 2024 (around the time of the podcast), the U.S. unemployment rate was 4.1% (seasonally adjusted). (bls.gov)
    • By August and September 2025, it had climbed to 4.3%–4.4%, the highest since 2021, indicating a clear rise from that 4.1% baseline. (tradingeconomics.com)

  2. At least one quarter of negative real GDP growth occurred.

    • BEA data show real U.S. GDP decreased in Q1 2025, with the third estimate recording a ‑0.5% annualized change from Q4 2024 (after Q4 2024 had grown at about 2.4%). (bea.gov)
    • This satisfies his criterion of “at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth” in the 2024–2025 window.

  3. The Fed cut rates more than once in the cycle.

    • The FOMC reduced the federal funds target range by a cumulative 100 bps over its September, November, and December 2024 meetings, from 5.25–5.50% down to 4.25–4.50%. That is already three distinct cuts. (federalreserve.gov)
    • The Fed has since continued easing, including another 25 bp cut in October 2025 to a 3.75–4.00% range, confirming multiple further cuts within the same rate‑setting cycle. (federalreserve.gov)

Given that unemployment is higher than at the time of the prediction, real GDP has logged a contracting quarter, and the Fed has executed several rate cuts within 2024–2025, Chamath’s composite prediction is substantively correct within the timeframe he specified.